Weather forecast accuracy details for Chicago, Illinois

These are the one- to three-day out accuracy percentages for high temperature, low temperature, icon forecast precipitation (both rain and snow), and text forecast precipitation (both rain and snow). Temperature accuracy is the percentage of forecasts within three degrees. Precipitation accuracy is the percentage of correct forecasts. The forecasts are collected in the evening.

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Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Month (February)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
Foreca/Vaisala   66.67% 66.67% 91.95% 91.95% 79.31%
The Weather Channel   66.67% 70.11% 89.66% 89.66% 79.02%
AccuWeather   61.29% 69.35% 93.55% 88.71% 78.23%
Microsoft   70.59% 65.12% 87.06% 87.06% 77.46%
Weatherbit   63.22% 68.97% 87.36% 87.36% 76.72%
AerisWeather   56.32% 67.82% 89.66% 89.66% 75.86%
Open-Meteo   55.17% 63.22% 86.21% 86.21% 72.70%
NWS Digital Forecast   57.32% 71.95% 80.49% 80.49% 72.56%
World Weather Online   59.77% 50.57% 82.76% 82.76% 68.97%
Pirate Weather   59.77% 28.74% 89.66% 89.66% 66.95%
Wetter   44.83% 49.43% 87.36% 83.91% 66.38%
OpenWeather   56.32% 35.63% 86.21% 86.21% 66.09%
Persistence   27.42% 21.88% 56.45% 56.45% 40.55%

Weather Forecast Accuracy Data Last Year (2023)

Provider High Temp Low Temp Icon Precip Text Precip Overall
The Weather Channel   81.19% 80.91% 87.40% 87.40% 84.22%
Microsoft   76.88% 79.79% 85.15% 85.15% 81.74%
AccuWeather   78.48% 80.97% 81.71% 79.91% 80.27%
Foreca/Vaisala   74.70% 77.44% 84.38% 84.38% 80.23%
AerisWeather   75.43% 76.35% 84.11% 84.02% 79.98%
Weatherbit   73.45% 75.61% 78.63% 78.72% 76.60%
NWS Digital Forecast   74.03% 74.68% 75.86% 75.86% 75.10%
World Weather Online   56.67% 63.05% 79.24% 79.24% 69.55%
Pirate Weather   65.11% 42.22% 83.97% 83.97% 68.82%
Wetter   56.62% 63.20% 78.26% 76.35% 68.61%
OpenWeather   61.37% 48.49% 79.73% 79.73% 67.33%
Persistence   27.92% 28.86% 57.20% 57.20% 42.79%

If this data feeds your inner weather geek, you'll probably be interested in the amazing amount of weather data available from ForecastWatch. Likewise, if you're looking to assess your own forecasting accuracy or would like to make more informed decisions about a weather provider you're considering or already use, we can provide data to help you.

The data here is calculated from forecasts and observations collected and analyzed by ForecastWatch. If you would like more information about the methods, scientific approach, and the quality controls employed to ensure the data and analyses are of the highest quality, please read this overview.

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